IMPENDING ECONOMIC CRISIS

30 September 2015
CONTRARY to the tall claims of Narendra Modi and his finance minister, all the economic indices point towards an impending economic crisis in India by 2016. For example, first, during the last 14 months the export statistics of 23 out of 30 major commodity groups have shown a steep fall. Secondly, the household savings which constitute a major part of national domestic investments dropped during these months from 34 to 28%. Thirdly, the non-performing assets of the public sector banks have risen sharply. Fourthly, when the launching of Make in India needs $1 trillion investment, during last 15 months in 75 major areas the investments have actually gone down from Rs 44,500 to 42,000 crores. Production in the manufacturing sector as well as the agricultural sector are stagnant, just 2% or below.

Compare these with what happened in the 1970s crisis in Latin America, the first one after the launching of neo-liberal policies, or the crisis that happened to the East Asian Miracles (as IMF and World Bank called them) in 1997, or the crisis faced by US in 2008 or with the stagnation faced by China presently.

These comparisons show that the crisis is imminent here. In order to overcome these the comprador experts are suggesting further crash measures like Green Revolution following the food crisis in 1965-67, or introduction of neo-liberal policies following the foreign exchange crisis of 1990-91. They advocate further crash measures including opening up of the economy to market forces fully as the IMF-WB - WTO trio demand. This is what the

Modi government is doing, strengthening corporate raj in all fields. FDI in all sectors has been increased, education and healthcare have been reduced to services which can be traded under options of GAT of WTO, banking, insurance like areas are opened further with 100% FDI in private banks and insurance etc.

These measures are going to deepen the crisis in all sectors leading to further pauperization of the masses, unemployment, price rise, corruption and devastation of nature. This is bound to intensify the contradiction between the corporate-comprador ruling system and the masses to an explosive situation.
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The Communist movement in India has a history of almost a century after the salvos of October Revolution in Russia brought Marxism-Leninism to the people of India who were engaged in the national liberation struggle against the British colonialists. It is a complex and chequered history.